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| Title: | The behavior of the Consumer Price Index : 1913 to 2003 |
| Author/Artist: |
Hamid, Shaikh A.
Dhakar, Tej S. |
| Date: | 2005 |
| Abstract/Description: | This paper analyzes the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the standard deviations of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the Republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the Democratic presidencies (0.38%).
A revised version of this paper has since been published in the journal Applied Economics. Please use this version in your citations. |
| Description: | Author's Original |
| Subject: |
inflation
consumer price index electoral process seasonality |
| Citation Link: | http://hdl.handle.net/10474/1680 |
| APA Citation: | Hamid, S. A. & Dhakar, T. S. (2008). The behavior of the US consumer price index 1913–2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI. Applied Economics, 40(13), 1637-1650 |