The behavior of the Consumer Price Index : 1913 to 2003

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The behavior of the Consumer Price Index : 1913 to 2003

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Title: The behavior of the Consumer Price Index : 1913 to 2003
Author/Artist: Hamid, Shaikh A.
Dhakar, Tej S.
Date: 2005
Abstract/Description: This paper analyzes the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the standard deviations of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the Republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the Democratic presidencies (0.38%).

A revised version of this paper has since been published in the journal Applied Economics. Please use this version in your citations.
Description: Author's Original
Subject: inflation
consumer price index
electoral process
seasonality
Citation Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10474/1680
APA Citation: Hamid, S. A. & Dhakar, T. S. (2008). The behavior of the US consumer price index 1913–2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI. Applied Economics, 40(13), 1637-1650

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