CFS Working Papers Series
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The Center published working papers on current issues in finance from 2003-2009.
- ItemThe behavior of the Consumer Price Index : 1913 to 2003(Southern New Hampshire University, 2005) Hamid, Shaikh A.; Dhakar, Tej S.This paper analyzes the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the standard deviations of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the Republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the Democratic presidencies (0.38%). A revised version of this paper has since been published in the journal Applied Economics. Please use this version in your citations.
- ItemPrimer on using neural networks for forecasting market variables(Southern New Hampshire University, 2004) Hamid, Shaikh A.Ability to forecast market variables is critical to analysts, economists and investors. Among other uses, neural networks are gaining in popularity in forecasting market variables. They are used in various disciplines and issues to map complex relationships. We present a primer for using neural networks for forecasting market variables in general, and in particular, forecasting volatility of the S&P 500 Index futures prices. We compare volatility forecasts from neural networks with implied volatility from S&P 500 Index futures options using the Barone-Adesi and Whaley (BAW) model for pricing American options on futures. Forecasts from neural networks outperform implied volatility forecasts. Volatility forecasts from neural networks are not found to be significantly different from realized volatility. Implied volatility forecasts are found to be significantly different from realized volatility in two of three cases. A revised version of this paper has since been published in the Journal of Business Research. Please use this version in your citations.
- ItemIntroducing students to the real option approach to capital budgeting(Southern New Hampshire University, 2003) Lander, Diane M.; Pettengill, Glenn N.The real option approach to capital budgeting has gained acceptance in the business community and is now addressed in Financial Management textbooks and Corporate Finance courses. Real option valuation can be a challenge for both students and instructors. Using two real options examples, a Black-Scholes growth (call) option and a binomial abandonment (put) option, we discuss possible student questions and areas of confusion, potential teaching issues, and basic connections the instructor may need to help students make. We conclude by providing suggestions and a list of resources for facilitating student learning. A revised version of this paper has since been published in the Journal of the Academy of Business Education. Please use this version in your citations.
- ItemThe adoption of specialized high school level financial literacy curriculum modules(Southern New Hampshire University, 2007) Fehr, DavidThe purpose of this research paper is to explore issues in the implementation, at the high school level, of sophisticated financial literacy teaching materials developed specifically for delivery in a high technology environment for a high school audience. Considerable research has been devoted to both understanding generally why innovation does or does not get adopted by the target population and, specifically, aspects in the implementation of new curriculum materials at the high school level. This paper looks at recent work evaluating the successes and failures in the implementation of new curriculum for foreign languages, mathematics, physics and general science. Can inferences be drawn from this work to assist in an implementation program for the financial literacy modules? Questions of the following types are addressed: Are there risks to the teacher in adopting novel curricula? Does extensive professional development need to accompany new curriculum adoption? Are there psychological hurdles that teachers need to address before adoption? Could there be institutional impediments present? How does the teacher work environment affect adoption? A revised version of this paper has since been published in the Journal for Economic Educators. Please use this version in your citations.
- ItemFinance certification preparation and "teaching to the test" - the NASAD Series 7 General Securities Registered Representative examination(Southern New Hampshire University, 2007) Fehr, DavidThis paper addresses two aspects of offering finance certification training programs at the university level. During the spring term 2006, Southern New Hampshire University offered (in conjunction with a large, diversified financial services company) a finance elective course to prepare students to sit for the NASD Series 7 General Securities Registered Representative Examination. Firstly, the paper provides the background on developing a specialized academic course working in cooperation with a corporate entity. Secondly, the paper explores the academic ramifications of delivering the course in a “teaching to the test” format instead of a more typical academic course delivery. A revised version of this paper has since been published in the Journal of Economics and Finance Education. Please use this version in your citations.