Draft now, lose later: evaluating NFL prospects' draft stock based on character concerns

Abstract

In recent years, social scientists have shown an increased interest in researching the relationship between a person with a criminal record and their subsequent success in the labor market. This research paper will look at all 1,016 players who were drafted into the labor market of the National Football League between 2010-2013 to determine what affects character concerns, specifically arrest records and team conflicts, have on draft status. This paper will determine if college football players who have a history of non-criminal related suspensions will negatively affect their NFL draft stock more than those who have an encounter with law enforcement. To prove this, data must be collected from every player who was drafted in 2010-2013 and determine whether the player had a formal criminal charge or was suspended for team or university violations, or both. We then must collect data from expert NFL draft analysts to see the correlation of the player’s pre-draft ranking (where they are projected to be drafted) and where the player was actually drafted. Then a beta regression model will be conducted to determine the correlation, if any, between the player’s incident and where they were drafted compared to their pre-draft ranking. (Author abstract)