Exchange rate fluctuation and firm value analysis of emerging market multinationals

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Southern New Hampshire University
The purpose of this dissertation is to broaden the understanding of exchange rate exposure of Emerging Market Multinationals (EMNCs). It is well known that emerging markets are more risky than the developed markets therefore it was hypothesized that the exchange rate exposure of the EMNCs would be greater than the developed market multinationals (DMNCs). The findings of the thesis are as follows. Using a sample of 212 MNCs from emerging and developed markets it was found that a) More than 60% of the EMNCs and the DMNCs are significantly exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. This finding in is an improvement from the earlier studies in this area where the proportion of exposed firms was thought to be below 25%. b) Analyzing the magnitude of the exposure, EMNCs are 20% more exposed than developed market MNCs. c) On analyzing the direction of the real exchange rate exposure, EMNCs are predominantly positively exposed to the exchange rate risk, i.e., they gain in value with local currency appreciation. Since the EMNCs have significant multinational presence, it is concluded that the positive exposure is a result of presence of foreign currency debt. A direct implications of these findings for the investor community is that EMNCs are more exposed to exchange rate fluctuations than DMNCs. Further in analyzing the EMNCs as investment vehicles, attention has to be given to the level of foreign debt held by EMNCs as this can have direct implications on the firm value. (Author abstract)