Global shock transmission to emerging markets
Southern New Hampshire University
The process of global integration has intensified the competition in world markets during the 1990s. In the new environment, many developing countries are increasingly relying upon greater trade integration for upgrading their international competitiveness and promoting their dynamic comparative advantage. In view of growing global integration, this paper attempts to analyze whether Indian, Hungarian and Polish economies have become more internationalized as a result of economic reforms embraced by each of these countries in early 1990s and hence vulnerable to global economic cycles: the integration hypothesis. The paper applies variance decompositions derived from vector auto regression to assess the degree of economic integration of the three economies with U.S. economy. The study concludes that, in the pre-liberalization period U.S. economy did not influence the Indian, Hungarian and Polish economies. Shocks from U.S. had no impact on their aggregates. In the post liberalization period, however, the results are mixed. Hungarian aggregates show very low degree of integration with US followed by Poland, and India. Although, all the three countries have shown varying degrees of integration in the post-liberalization period, none of the economies are found to be overly vulnerable to international shocks. It can be argued that despite opening of economy and transition towards integration with the global economy, the degree of integration across countries still remains significantly low.