Hamid, Shaikh A.Dhakar, Tej S.2011-01-272011-01-272005https://hdl.handle.net/10474/1680Author's OriginalThis paper analyzes the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the standard deviations of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the Republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the Democratic presidencies (0.38%). A revised version of this paper has since been published in the journal Applied Economics. Please use this version in your citations.440365 bytesen-USRoutledge (Taylor & Francis Group) retain all ownership rights. Further reproduction in violation of copyright is prohibitedinflationconsumer price indexelectoral processseasonalityWorking Paperapplication/pdf