Browsing by Author "Dhakar, Tej S."
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ItemAnomalous behavior of the volatility of DJIA over the last century(Southern New Hampshire University, 2006) Hamid, Shaikh A.; Dhakar, Tej S.This study explores month effects in terms of standard deviations of monthly and daily percentage changes of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. During the last century, the standard deviation of the monthly percentage changes of April (6.63%) is significantly higher than the standard deviations for the other months. The monthly standard deviations of daily percentage changes as a measure of volatility exhibit a slightly rising trend, peaking in October and are all significantly different from zero. The mean monthly standard deviation of daily percentage changes for October (1.08%) was the maximum and also significantly higher than the means of the other months. The DJIA became less volatile in terms of monthly as well as daily percentage changes during the second half of the last century compared to the first half. If we divide the data for the last century into decades, the thirties stand out as the most volatile period in terms of monthly as well as daily percentage changes. Based on both dimensions, the decades prior to 1940 experienced higher standard deviations compared to the subsequent decades. So it appeared that the stock market became more volatile in recent times – but that was in points, not in percentage terms. ItemThe behavior of the Consumer Price Index : 1913 to 2003(Southern New Hampshire University, 2005) Hamid, Shaikh A.; Dhakar, Tej S.This paper analyzes the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the standard deviations of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the Republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the Democratic presidencies (0.38%). A revised version of this paper has since been published in the journal Applied Economics. Please use this version in your citations. ItemThe behavior of U.S. Producer Price Index : 1913 to 2004(Southern New Hampshire University, 2006) Hamid, Shaikh A.; Dhakar, Tej S.; Thirunavukkarasu, ArulThis paper analyzes the behavior of U.S. PPI over the period January 1913 to March 2004 using monthly “all commodities index” values. The mean of monthly percentage index changes for the entire data set (0.23%) was significantly greater than zero. January, July and November had mean monthly percentage changes which were significantly greater than the mean changes of the other months over the entire period. March, May and September had mean percentage changes significantly lower than the other months. We find that there is some periodicity to all commodities index. The mean of monthly commodities index changes during the Republican presidencies (0.08%) was significantly lower than the mean changes during the Democratic presidencies (0.38%) and so were the medians. We slice the entire data into three sub-periods. We find that though the means and medians have significantly increased over the three sub-periods, the standard deviations of the means have decreased. Granger causality tests reveal that while oil prices affected the all commodities index and the finished goods index, the causal relationship is not true the other way at the 99% significance level. The findings have implications for policy makers, analysts, investors, and manufacturers. ItemGlobal shock transmission to emerging markets(Southern New Hampshire University, 2003-07) Dasari, Usha; Dhakar, Tej S.; Samii, MassoodThe process of global integration has intensified the competition in world markets during the 1990s. In the new environment, many developing countries are increasingly relying upon greater trade integration for upgrading their international competitiveness and promoting their dynamic comparative advantage. In view of growing global integration, this paper attempts to analyze whether Indian, Hungarian and Polish economies have become more internationalized as a result of economic reforms embraced by each of these countries in early 1990s and hence vulnerable to global economic cycles: the integration hypothesis. The paper applies variance decompositions derived from vector auto regression to assess the degree of economic integration of the three economies with U.S. economy. The study concludes that, in the pre-liberalization period U.S. economy did not influence the Indian, Hungarian and Polish economies. Shocks from U.S. had no impact on their aggregates. In the post liberalization period, however, the results are mixed. Hungarian aggregates show very low degree of integration with US followed by Poland, and India. Although, all the three countries have shown varying degrees of integration in the post-liberalization period, none of the economies are found to be overly vulnerable to international shocks. It can be argued that despite opening of economy and transition towards integration with the global economy, the degree of integration across countries still remains significantly low. ItemA new perspective on the anomalies in the monthly closings of the Dow Jones Industrial Average(Southern New Hampshire University, 2003) Hamid, Shaikh A.; Dhakar, Tej S.This study explores three types of month effects in the Dow Jones Industrial Average: (a) for a given period, if the mean of monthly percentage changes of each month was different from zero, (b) for a given period, if the mean of monthly percentage changes for a month was different from the means of all the other months, and (c) for a given period, if the variance of the monthly percentage changes for a month was different from the variances of all the other months. For our entire data set (May 1896 to December 2002) we find that the means of monthly percentage changes of only July, August, January and December were significantly greater than zero (months put in descending order). But the means of none of these three months were significantly higher compared to the means of all the other months. With a mean percentage change of -1.25%, only September appears with significant negative returns. And this mean is significantly lower compared to the means of all the other months. In other words, for the entire data set, we have a negative September effect. Month effect with respect to variance (variance of monthly percentage changes for a month being significantly different from all the other months) was found for January, February and December (lower variances), and April (higher variance). When we look at the first half of the twentieth century versus the second half, we see more pronounced month effects in the second half - considering all three types of effects we analyze. December exhibited all three types of effects in this period. When we sub-divide the last century into four 25-year periods, we find more pronounced month effects in the last quarter than in the previous three quarters. When we sub-divide the data into 10-year periods, we do not find any consistent and discernible pattern. The month effect varies with the time period we consider and the type of effect we analyze. Though one would expect the DJIA stocks to be free from seasonal patterns since each one of them are closely followed by a large number of analysts, the existence of any type of month effect is surprising. However, given that no discernible pattern is detectable is a reflection of efficiency of the DJIA stocks to a large degree. ItemPolitical risk and MNC's location decision - a dynamic perspective(Southern New Hampshire University, 2006) Rajamanickam, Mohana; Samii, Massood; Aybar, Bulent; Dhakar, Tej S.; Fellman, Philip VosThis thesis builds a dynamic modeling tool for analyzing the impact of political risk on the production location decisions of multinational corporations (MNCs). The choice of location by MNCs involves various decisional factors and the time- dependent interactions among them. A sophisticated location analysis has to incorporate these complexities in a holistic perspective. The combined impact of learning and political risk on the location decision was studied in this thesis through computation simulation. The key findings are as follows. a) The cost of operating in a host country increases with increasing political risk. Hence, a country with high political risk receives increasing investment at a later point in time than a country with lower political risk. From a country’s national perspective, FDI policy makers need to focus on reducing the transaction cost due to political risk in order to receive earlier investments .b) An increased rate of learning by MNCs helps to reduce their transaction costs and this helps them expand internationally at an earlier stage compared to a slower learning MNC. A fast learning MNC in a risky environment can outpace a slow learner in terms of lower operating costs and profitability. It thus follows that MNCs need to consider the risk of the host country in combination with their learning capacity when evaluating international production locations. c) If the alternative location choice is a cheaper destination but has high political risk, smaller MNCs cannot gain a cost advantage by investing in such a host country because they lack economies of scale necessary to utilize this potential advantage. It only makes economic sense for large MNCs to move their production locations to riskier countries for cost advantages. Finally, the dynamic methodology employed in this thesis is a novel analytical contribution to the discipline of international business. By altering the variables in the simulation model, various scenario analyses specific to a firm and country can be performed which can be of value for FDI decision makers in a variety of settings including corporate strategy, marketing, finance and economic and social policy. (Author abstract)